3
 Recognition Rates

Main citizenships

Key facts (March 2026)

 

  • In March 2026, the EU+ recognition rate remained around 30%, broadly stable compared with recent months.
  • Around 16,000 decisions granted refugee status and 7,600 granted subsidiary protection, while around 53,000 decisions were negative.  
  • Recognition rates remained high for several main citizenships, including Malians (88%), Haitians (82%), Afghans (72%), Sudanese (68%) and Ukrainians (60%).  
  • Recognition rates remained very low for several high-volume citizenships, including Egyptians (2%), and Venezuelans, Bangladeshis, Moroccans and Peruvians (each at 3%).  
  • The recognition rate for Syrians remained low by historical standards, at 17%, reflecting the changed outcome of Syrian decisions compared with previous years.

The recognition rate reflects the percentage of asylum applicants that receive decisions granting either refugee status or subsidiary protection at first instance. In March 2026, the EU+ recognition rate stood at 30%, slightly lower than in February and broadly in line with the levels recorded since the end of 2025. The overall rate was based on around 77,000 first instance decisions, including around 16,000 decisions granting refugee status, 7,600 granting subsidiary protection and 53,000 negative decisions.

The fall in the EU+ recognition rate was closely linked to developments in Syrian decision making. Initially, the decline reflected a sharp reduction in decisions issued to Syrian applicants, who had previously accounted for a large number of positive decisions. Immediately following the regime change in Syria, many EU+ countries temporarily paused or limited the processing of Syrian claims pending greater clarity on the situation in the country. This reduced the number of decisions feeding into the overall EU+ recognition rate and therefore contributed to the decline. More recently, more Syrian cases have been processed especially in Gemany, but a lower proportion have resulted in protection, where applicants were assessed as no longer being in need of international protection. In March 2026, Syrians received around 9,200 first instance decisions, with a recognition rate of 17%.

As the Syrian example illustrates, the EU+ recognition rate is a composite indicator shaped by diverse trends, including citizenship mix, case composition, procedural factors and ultimately the types of decisions issued. Recognition rates for different citizenships can vary significantly. In March 2026, recognition rates were high for Malians (88%) and Haitians (82%), with most positive decisions granting subsidiary protection. Recognition rates were also high for Afghans (72%), where most positive decisions granted refugee status, as well as for Sudanese (68%) and Ukrainians (60%). 

At the same time, several main citizenships continued to have very low recognition rates. In March 2026, the recognition rate was 2% for Egyptians, and 3% for Venezuelans, Bangladeshis, Moroccans and Peruvians. Recognition rates were also relatively low for Georgians (7%), Sri Lankans (10%), Nigerians (11%), Pakistanis (12%), Colombians (13%) and Turks (17%).

Among the main citizenships, several recent changes should be interpreted cautiously. Afghans continued to have a high recognition rate, although it declined from the very high levels recorded in late 2025. Syrians remained far below the recognition rates seen during much of the previous two years. Sudanese and Somalis continued to receive positive decisions in a substantial share of cases, while recognition rates for Venezuelans, Bangladeshis, Egyptians, Moroccans and Peruvians remained low and relatively stable.

It should be noted that some applicants, especially those from Venezuela, and to a lesser extent from other citizenships, may be granted national rather than international forms of protection. These national statuses are not regulated at EU level and are therefore counted as negative decisions in these statistics. The recognition rates presented here are based on first instance decisions issued by asylum authorities and do not include cases decided at appeal or review. 

Across the EU+

Key facts (January to March 2026)

 

  • In the latest three-month period, January to March 2026, recognition rates continued to vary considerably across EU+ countries for some citizenships, while being more consistent for others.  
  • Recognition rates were relatively high in the main decision-issuing countries for Afghans and Sudanese.  
  • Recognition rates were relatively low across several EU+ countries for Bangladeshis, Egyptians, Moroccans, Peruvians, Georgians, Nigerians and Sri Lankans.  
  • The widest variation was visible for Syrians, Ukrainians, Somalis, Sudanese, Malians and Turks, where sizeable decision volumes were issued in countries with substantially different recognition rates.  
  • Differences between EU+ countries should be interpreted cautiously, as they may reflect case composition, national practices, procedural factors and other relevant differences, not only divergent decision making.

The aim of EUAA’s work is to foster a harmonised implementation of the Common European Asylum System across the EU so as to reach a situation where an application for international protection would receive the same decision, no matter where it was lodged. Recognition rates, the percentage of asylum applications that receive decisions granting refugee status or subsidiary protection, are sometimes cited as an indicator of the level of such harmonisation between EU+ countries. However, they should be interpreted cautiously, because differences can also reflect case composition, national practices, procedural factors and other characteristics of the applications being decided.

Irrespective of underlying causes, the chart illustrates first instance recognition rates across the EU+ for selected citizenships during the latest three-month period, January to March 2026. In each column, individual circles of the same colour represent different EU+ countries, with the size of each circle reflecting the number of decisions issued, and their placement on the vertical axis indicating the corresponding recognition rate. The use of a three-month period helps to smooth out short-term fluctuations, while very small decision volumes have been excluded from the chart to reduce sensitivity to small numbers.

Some citizenships had relatively high recognition rates in the main decision-issuing countries. For Afghans, the largest number of decisions was issued by Germany, with around 23,000 decisions and a recognition rate of 80%. Other sizeable decision volumes were issued in France and Greece, both with recognition rates of 69%, as well as in Switzerland (59%) and Austria (80%). For Afghans some countries recorded low recognition rates, but these were at much lower volumes. Haitians also had a high recognition rate but almost all decisions were issued in France, where the recognition rate was 88%.

Other citizenships had relatively low recognition rates across several EU+ countries. For Bangladeshis, most decisions were issued in Italy, with around 10,000 decisions and a recognition rate of 2%, while recognition rates were also low in Greece, Ireland and Germany. Egyptians also had low recognition rates in the main decision-issuing countries, especially Italy and Greece. Low recognition rates were also visible for Moroccans, Peruvians, Georgians, Nigerians and Sri Lankans across several countries. Even in such cases, low recognition rates should not be read as meaning that all applications are unfounded, since different applicant profiles may be concentrated in different EU+ countries and all applications require individual assessment.

The widest variation was visible for citizenships where sizeable numbers of decisions were issued in countries with substantially different recognition rates. For example:

  • Syrians had low recognition rates in Germany and the Netherlands, but much higher rates in Austria, France, Italy and Switzerland.  
  • Ukrainians had high recognition rates in France and Italy, but low rates in Poland, Germany and some other countries.  
  • Somalis had high recognition rates in Spain, Italy, Austria and Switzerland, but lower rates in Germany, Greece, Belgium and the Netherlands.  
  • Sudanese had high recognition rates in several countries, including Greece, Germany and the Netherlands, but a lower rate in France, which also issued a sizeable number of decisions.  
  • Malians had very high recognition rates in Spain and Italy, but a lower rate in France, where a meaningful number of decisions was also issued.  
  • Turks had relatively low recognition rates in Germany, France, Greece and Italy, but higher rates in some other countries, including Denmark, Finland, Norway and Switzerland.

Taken together, the data show that recognition rates are relatively consistent for some citizenships but highly variable for others. This variation is relevant to EUAA’s convergence work, but it should not be interpreted mechanically. Differences in recognition rates may reflect differences in applicant profiles, evidence, procedural circumstances, national practices and other factors, as well as possible differences in the interpretation and application of protection standards. 

≤20% Recognition rates

  • In March 2026, around 55% of all applications were lodged by citizenships with a recognition rate of 20% or less in 2025.  
  • The calculation excludes citizenships with few decisions in 2025 to ensure statistical reliability.  
  • The largest low-recognition-rate citizenships in March were Venezuelans with around 7,000 applications and a 2025 recognition rate of 2%, followed by Bangladeshis with around 3,300 applications and a recognition rate of 3%.  
  • Other sizeable low-recognition-rate citizenships included Turks with around 1,900 applications and a recognition rate of 13%, and Egyptians with around 1,800 applications and a recognition rate of 3%.  

A new feature of the EU Asylum and Migration Pact is the mandatory border procedure, which as of June 2026 will apply to certain categories of asylum seekers including those coming from countries with low recognition rates for international protection. The aim is to make a quick assessment at the EU's external borders of whether applications are unfounded or inadmissible. Applicants in the asylum border procedure would not be authorised to enter the territory of the EU. For more details read the Asylum Procedure Regulation Art 42(j) 2024/1348 and a recent EUAA  Practical Guide on the Asylum Border Procedure.

In March 2026, around 55% of all applications were lodged by citizenships with recognition rates of 20% or less in 2025. This estimation was calculated using EUAA data and, to ensure statistical reliability, excludes citizenships that received few decisions in 2025.

Among the main citizenships shown in the chart, the largest low-recognition-rate group was Venezuelans, with around 7,000 applications in March and a recognition rate of 2% in 2025. They were followed by Bangladeshis with around 3,300 applications and a recognition rate of 3%, Turks with around 1,900 applications and a recognition rate of 13%, and Egyptians with around 1,800 applications and a recognition rate of 3%. Other low-recognition-rate citizenships shown in the chart include Moroccans and Pakistanis with around 1,400 applications each, Peruvians with around 1,300, Colombians and Congolese (DR) with around 1,200 each, and Georgians with around 1,100.

In the context of asylum, the term “safe country” refers to countries which generally do not generate protection needs for their nationals. On 23 February 2026, the Council adopted the first EU-wide list of safe countries of origin, designating Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, India, Kosovo,* Morocco and Tunisia as safe countries of origin at Union level. EU accession candidate countries are also included, unless specific exclusion criteria apply, including an EU-wide recognition rate above 20%. In practice, the application of this list means that Member States may process asylum applications from nationals of these countries in an accelerated procedure, while still conducting an individual assessment of each application. Together, these countries accounted for 26% of all applications lodged in March 2026. Read the EUAA Situational Update No 24, Overview of the Implementation of Safe Country Concepts, for the state of play of EU+ countries implementing safe country concepts in the processing of asylum applications.