Latest Asylum Trends: Monthly Overview

Asylum in the EU+ affected by political and security developments in Syria

Alongside developments in Latin America, Syria remains a core driver of EU+ asylum dynamics, with intentions shaped by the interaction between political transition, security conditions and the credibility of return options.

In Syria, hopes for a sustained peace after the December 2024 ousting of Bashar al-Assad have faltered. Through much of 2025, Syria experienced an uneasy pause in major hostilities, which had a notable impact on asylum trends – Syrian applications in the EU+ dropped sharply, while many Syrians waited to see if it was safe to go home. Indeed, by mid-2025 Syrians had fallen from the top rank of EU+ asylum seekers to just 25,000 applications during the first half of the year (a 66% plunge year-on-year) and just 2,600 applications in November 2025 (latest data). At the same time Syrians were much less frequently detected at the external border. One year into the transition, UNHCR has recorded the return of over 1.2 million Syrians from abroad and 1.9 million internally displaced persons within Syria. The UNHCR has welcomed voluntary returns as part of Syrian reconstruction, but says there must be no forced returns of refugees.

The renewal of conflict across Syria is already testing previous assumptions about refugee returns and asylum needs. Syria’s transitional government had been advocating for refugee repatriation and reconstruction, prompting some EU+ countries to explore repatriation deals (Germany, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands). But the escalating violence raises grave protection concerns. Many Syrians abroad remain fearful that going back could make them targets, especially minorities and former opposition-affiliated groups. The recent turmoil will likely reinforce those fears.

For updated analysis of the situation in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad, read two EUAA Syria Country Focus reports from July 2025, and March 2025, and for an analysis of the main profiles in Syria read EUAA’s Syria Country Guidance.

Asylum in the EU+ affected by conflict in countries of origin

Beyond Syria, several large-scale conflicts continue to drive displacement and protection needs, with spillover into EU+ asylum systems.

Sudan has been ravaged by a brutal civil war since 2023 when a struggle for power broke out between its army, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and a paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Services (RSF). According to the UN, the war is entering a deadlier phase with intensified fighting, mounting civilian casualties and growing risks of regional spillover. For the third consecutive year, Sudan sits at the top of the International Rescue Committee’s (IRC) Emergency Watchlist. Overall there are an estimated 9 million internally displaced persons across Sudan making it the world largest displacement crisis. This, amid an unprecedented fall off in aid expenditure by donor governments worldwide. In November 2025, applications from Sudanese nationals in the EU+ reached 2,100, more or less double the same period in 2024. For an analysis of the main risk profiles and the security situation in Sudan read the EUAA Country Guidance.

Although most displaced Ukrainians in the EU+ benefit from  (currently 4.5 million Eurostat data), the number of those lodging asylum applications has fluctuated as the war continues and displacement patterns evolve. In November 2025, Ukrainians lodged just 1,500 applications — half as many compared to the same month in 2024. France and Poland received most of these claims (see also: section on Migrants from Ukraine). For more information read the EUAA report on the Situation in Ukraine.temporary protection (currently 4.5 million Eurostat data), the number of those lodging asylum applications has fluctuated as the war continues and displacement patterns evolve. In November 2025, Ukrainians lodged just 1,500 applications — half as many compared to the same month in 2024. France and Poland received most of these claims (see also: section on Migrants from Ukraine). For more information read the EUAA report on the Situation in Ukraine.

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, thousands have died and many more have been displaced especially in Burundi, amid ongoing conflict. A peace agreement was signed in June 2025, followed by a ceasefire in July. However, the reality on the ground continues to be marred with violence. Applications in the EU+ remained high in November (1,100), though recognition rates were low, possibly because some applicants were not from conflict-affected areas. France received nearly three quarters of these applications, but travel histories are unclear given very few detections of irregular arrivals at the EU external border.

Beyond the major conflicts highlighted above, Iran merits monitoring as renewed unrest could alter outward movement dynamics despite currently low asylum volumes in the EU+. In November 2025, Iranians only lodged 590 applications in the EU+ (latest data), well below levels seen during the last wave of protests in 2022–2023. The UN Human Rights Council has documented serious violations linked to the last protest response, including excessive force and due process concerns, and has repeatedly warned of continued repression and narrowing civic space. Human Rights Watch also underscored serious abuses tied to the 2022 protests. The ongoing economically driven protests have spread across multiple provinces, suggesting potential for renewed volatility and displacement to the EU+ if the repression escalates.

In Haiti there has been a rapid deterioration in security and humanitarian conditions driven by armed gangs, alongside rising asylum demand in the EU+. In November 2025, Haitian nationals lodged around 1,200 asylum applications, almost entirely in France and nearly half repeated (latest data). The context is a severe crisis: IOM assessed that internal displacement reached a record high of around 1.4 million people by September 2025, as gang violence expanded and displacement sites multiplied. UNICEF also points to a rapidly worsening poly-crisis for children in Haiti including large-scale displacement, school closures and rising recruitment of children by armed groups.

Asylum in the EU+ affected by a landmark court ruling

Finally, legal developments within the EU+ continue to shape asylum systems directly by harmonising and clarifying protection thresholds.

The Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) has fundamentally changed the asylum outlook for Afghan women in Europe with a : on 4 October 2024, the CJEU held that Afghan women face a general risk of persecution under Taliban rule, such that nationality and gender alone are sufficient grounds for refugee status. In effect, Afghan women and girls are now recognised as a particular social group at acute risk, given the Taliban’s systematic oppression that the European Parliament described as gender apartheid. The increasingly repressive conditions in Afghanistan, with a systematic exclusion of women and girls from public life under Taliban rule, have been reflected in EUAA Country Guidance emphasising that gender-based restrictions can amount to persecution. UNHCR also released guidance supporting similar conclusions.

As a result of these policy changes, Afghan women have been seeking asylum in greater numbers, driving a notable shift in EU+ asylum trends. Many who might previously have been denied refugee status, even those with subsidiary protection, are now reapplying. In particular, in Germany authorities reported a sharp rise in Afghan women’s asylum claims in mid-2025, noting that nearly half of these were repeat applications made after the law changed in their favour. The peak of this trend was in September and subsequently numbers have started to decrease though by November they still remained much higher than in the spring. At the same time, detections at the external border remain at a low level.