3
 Recognition Rates

Main citizenships

Key facts (February 2026)

 

  • EU+ recognition rate was 31% at first instance.

  • A decline in early 2025 was driven by fewer Syrian decisions, reflecting procedural factors, not stricter criteria.

  • Recognition rates still vary widely across citizenships.

  • Among the nationalities with high rates are Haitians, Malians, Afghans and Sudanese, while rates are rather low for Bangladeshis, Turks and Egyptians.

Over recent years, the recognition rate, which reflects the percentage of asylum applicants that receive decisions granting either refugee status or subsidiary protection, fluctuated around 40% at first instance in the EU+. In much of 2024, the recognition rate stood at around 42% to 45%, before falling sharply at the beginning of 2025 following developments in Syria. From January to July 2025, the EU+ recognition rate remained at around 24% to 25%, before increasing to 31% and above since August 2025. More recently, it stood at 31% in February 2026.

At the beginning of 2025, the EU+ recognition rate fell to one of its lowest levels outside of the COVID-19 period. This decline was driven by a sharp drop in decisions issued to Syrian applicants, who had typically received a high number of positive outcomes. Most EU+ countries temporarily paused the processing of Syrian asylum claims during this period, pending greater clarity on the security and political situation in Syria. As a result, the number of decisions issued to Syrians fell significantly, from generally between 10,000 and 15,000 per month throughout most of 2024, to 4,200 in December 2024, 1,600 in January 2025, and 1,700 in February 2025. Even by February 2026, the number of decisions issued to Syrians (8,100) remained below the levels recorded in most months of 2024. Syrians also showed a dramatic change in recognition rate, falling from around 90% or more in most of 2024 to 14% in January 2025 and 9% in March 2025, before partially recovering in the second half of 2025 and stabilising at around 19% in early 2026.

This drop in the Syrian recognition rate increasingly reflects stricter asylum criteria, now that the situation in Syria is better understood, and more stable. However, the bulk of the earlier decline was largely driven by procedural factors. In countries that partially suspended the processing of Syrian cases, decisions were still issued in limited scenarios, such as when an assessment of the situation in Syria was not required, e.g. for applicants already granted protection elsewhere in the EU+. Furthermore, some Syrians withdrew their asylum applications, which is, in some EU+ countries, counted as a negative decision.

Recognition rates for different citizenships varied considerably and some exhibited notable changes over the last two years. Afghans had a recognition rate of around 57% to 69% through most of 2024, before declining to 49% to 50% in spring 2025, and then increasing sharply to 80% in October and November 2025, before standing at 74% in February 2026. The rate for Haitians rose from 54% in March 2024 to around 90% in much of late 2025 and early 2026. Ukrainians also exhibited variation, peaking at 85% in December 2024 before declining to 60% in February 2026. Conversely, Bangladeshis remained consistently low at around 2% to 5%, while Turkish nationals generally remained in the mid-teens, standing at 19% in February 2026. Citizenships with persistently high recognition rates included Malians, whose rate stood at 89% in February 2026, and Sudanese, who remained around 70% for most of the period.

It should be noted that some applicants, especially those from Venezuela and to a lesser extent from Afghanistan, are often granted national rather than international forms of protection, which are not regulated at EU level and are therefore counted here as negative asylum decisions. Also, the recognition rates presented here are based on first instance decisions issued by asylum authorities and thus do not account for cases decided by the judiciary and other authorities at second or higher instance, i.e. in appeal and review.

 

Across the EU+

Key facts (Last three months, December 2025 – February 2026)

 

  • Some citizenships have recognition rates that vary between EU+ countries, whereas others are more aligned.

  • Rates have been consistently high for some groups such as Sudanese and Malians.

  • Rates have been consistently low for Bangladeshis, Moroccans and Egyptians.

  • Wide variation has been visible for certain citizenships such as Somalis, Ukrainians and Syrians.

  • Differences likely reflect national practices, case composition and procedural factors.

The aim of EUAA’s work is to foster a harmonised implementation of the Common European Asylum System across the EU so as to reach a situation where an application for international protection would receive the same decision, no matter where it was lodged. Recognition rates, the percentage of asylum applications that receive decisions granting refugee status or subsidiary protection, are sometimes cited as an indicator of the level of such harmonisation between EU+ countries. For more information, read the EUAA Pilot Convergence Analysis which focuses on the main factors leading to variations in recognition rates as well as on measures to achieve greater convergence.

The chart below presents first instance recognition rates by citizenship across EU+ countries, with each dot representing a reporting country and bubble size reflecting the volume of decisions issued. It highlights both the overall level of recognition for each citizenship and the extent to which outcomes vary across EU+ countries.

Several citizenships exhibit consistently high recognition rates across most EU+ countries. For example, Sudanese applicants show consistently high recognition rates, often exceeding 70% across a wide range of countries, including Germany (88%), Greece (86%) and Spain (93%). Malians likewise record high levels of recognition in several countries, including Italy (91%) and Spain (100%). In general, these citizenships display relatively strong alignment across EU+ countries, with high recognition rates observed in most national systems.

At the other end of the spectrum, several citizenships display consistently low recognition rates across most EU+ countries. Bangladeshis, Egyptians and Moroccans generally receive very low levels of protection, often close to or at 0% in multiple countries, including top receiving countries such as Greece and Italy. Pakistanis also tend to have low recognition rates across most EU+ countries, typically below 20%, while Georgians, Colombians and Peruvians similarly show low levels of recognition in the majority of reporting countries. These patterns suggest a relatively consistent approach across the EU+ for these citizenships, with high shares of negative decisions.

In contrast, some citizenships exhibit considerable variation in recognition rates across EU+ countries. Venezuelans show highly divergent outcomes, ranging from 0% in Spain—despite very large volumes of decisions—to much higher rates in countries such as Italy (85%). Ukrainians also display significant variation, with very high recognition rates in countries such as France (91%), Italy (97%) and Spain (95%), but very low rates in others, including Germany (2%) and Poland (1%). Syrians similarly show wide variation, with recognition rates ranging from as low as 5% in Germany and the Netherlands to above 80% in Austria and Switzerland. Afghans also exhibit some variation, with high recognition rates in several major receiving countries but lower rates in others such as Belgium (33%) and Poland (6%).

Overall, while recognition rates remain broadly aligned for some citizenships—particularly those with consistently high or low levels of protection—significant variation persists for others. These patterns underline the continued relevance of EUAA’s convergence work in supporting more consistent decision making across the EU+.

≤20% Recognition rates

A new feature of the EU Asylum and Migration Pact is the mandatory border procedure, which as of June 2026 will apply to certain categories of asylum seekers including those coming from countries with low recognition rates for international protection. The aim is to make a quick assessment at the EU's external borders of whether applications are unfounded or inadmissible. Applicants in the asylum border procedure would not be authorised to enter the territory of the EU. For more details read the Asylum Procedure Regulation Art 42(j) 2024/1348.

In February 2025, some 56% of applications were lodged by citizenships that had recognition rates of 20% or less in 2025 (low-recognition-rate citizenships). This estimation was calculated using EUAA data, plus to ensure statistical reliability, it excludes citizenships that received fewer than 1,000 decisions in 2025. This exclusion is necessary because, when the sample size is small, a few additional positive or negative decisions can dramatically alter the calculated recognition rate, potentially leading to unstable or misleading estimates.

The chart above shows the main citizenships that applied for asylum in February 2026, separated into whether or not they fall into the category of having a recognition rate of 20% or less in 2025. Nationalities visualised in the chart capture three quarters (71%) of all applications lodged in February 2026.

In the context of asylum, the term 'safe country' refers to countries which generally do not generate protection needs for their people. In April 2025, the European Commission published a proposal of seven countries of origin considered safe at the Union level, which will apply to all EU Member States if approved by the European Parliament and the Council. In practice, the application of this list means Member States will use an accelerated procedure to individually assess asylum applications from nationals of these countries. The proposed list of safe countries of origin includes Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, India, Kosovo, Morocco and Tunisia which together accounted for 17% of all applications lodged in February 2026. Read the EUAA Situational Update No 22, Overview of the Implementation of Safe Country Concepts for the state of play of EU+ countries implementing safe country concepts in the processing of asylum applications.